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October 29, 2008

Collapse of Equity Markets - Beyond the Asian Crisis?

During the 1997-98 Asian crisis, the equity markets of the 5 Asian countries at the epicenter fell between 58% (Korea) and 78% (Malaysia). These declines took place in the 12-15 months from mid 1997. Today, 9 countries have already shown such declines in their stock markets -- but in less than 4 months.

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Some examples: Iceland, down 85% since August; Russia down 76% since July; Kazakhstan and Ukraine, down 70% since July; and Brazil, Hungary and Peru have fallen over 65% since July. In four months, 9 countries have already fallen more than Korea fell in one year after the Asian crisis (58%). The stock markets in 17 countries (from a subset of 36 countries) have fallen more than 50% since mid 2008. Slovakia has been the best performer in the sample, losing "only" 15% since July. This tells about the magnitude, speed, and extension of the current crisis, reaching countries in all regions. Unfortunately, there are no signs to assume that the worst is over.

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